NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bad9ae2995ffecb82d112a338af62aa9dd2cc80de73620475974987d76f14c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Over | 53c | 9,570$5,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,458.3 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 8,606$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,020.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ade…c710backed Under | 52c | 6,196$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 53c | 5,655$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,657.84 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe153…8f29backed Over | 48c | 2,300$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…3446backed Over | 48c | 2,196$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 47c | 2,020$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.4 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.98 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…6aa1backed Over | 48c | 1,700$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 52c | 1,361$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.26 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Over | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.19 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 48c | 791.67$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 48c | 719.31$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.67 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 54c | 501.47$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 47c | 295.5$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.61 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 233.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 52c | 149.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…8ed0backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 53c | 90.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 58.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 46c | 29.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 29.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Raptors won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 17.5No won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Raptors won
- Timberwolves vs. RaptorsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.