Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20a5e0c3e6b0dee765ca054cf805dbd0eef526ea2ca006f20dd7f851b560aa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 6,867$4,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,665.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 47c | 3,283$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.22 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 46c | 2,035$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed No | 54c | 1,872$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.14 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…3e17backed Yes | 46c | 1,079$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Yes | 47c | 999.96$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 53c | 920.2$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.5 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 26c | 793.05$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Yes | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 53c | 567.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 46c | 347.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 46c | 330.02$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 35c | 278$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 53c | 275$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 46c | 260.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Yes | 17c | 200.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 42c | 184.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 53c | 137.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 130.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…ec0ebacked Yes | 46c | 129$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 55c | 124$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…d317backed Yes | 46c | 115.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…4f6fbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed No | 80c | 103.75$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 10c | 101.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Yes | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Yes | 46c | 90.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed No | 53c | 62.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…b7cdbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…3fcbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 29c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 30.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked No | 55c | 30.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked No | 56c | 28.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Yes | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…bbf8backed Yes | 46c | 21.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed No | 57c | 21.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.