Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2242f1ad8cdbb931837d6041de6d1bcd681c8d55d96182ebcf2c6d00ad250b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 1c | 2,729$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 699.41$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 392.28$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 369.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 62c | 319.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.39 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 54c | 317.52$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 312.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 310.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 244.6$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 55c | 229.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 153.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 125.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 112.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 108.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 53c | 99.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 67c | 98.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…bb90backed No | 63c | 84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 80.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 74.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 79c | 61.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 38c | 49.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 42.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 61c | 41.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 34.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 60c | 31.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 62c | 31.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 42c | 31.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 55c | 29.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 38c | 29.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 60c | 29.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 69c | 28.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 56c | 27.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 58c | 27.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 58c | 26.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 65c | 24.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…cdf5backed Yes | 66c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 65c | 21.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 56c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 66c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 78c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.