Dota2 · resolved market
Aurora to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb24a849248f5ab3f92bbd46f661dd61cda0b44b0d260c04c6a5534621280c7bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 75c | 906.14$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.4 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Yes | 76c | 393.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Yes | 71c | 344.83$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 5c | 323.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 244.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 27c | 202$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 76c | 187.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 24c | 151.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 28c | 150.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 77c | 140.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 23c | 100.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 96.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 24c | 94.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 49.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 24c | 46.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 76c | 42.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed5…4a71backed Yes | 76c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 75c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Yes | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aurora to win 2-0?this page
- Level UP to win 2-0?No won
- Level UP vs Aurora: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.