Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27832460798be79488e3834ec9db5e441d8e283aed35cbe57654334d6b5c894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52a3…28c4backed Yes | 31c | 600.14$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 560.73$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.93 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 479.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 54c | 416.33$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 41c | 366.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.66 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 42c | 350.13$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.26 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 67c | 294.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 291.17$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 244.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 219.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 215.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 193$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 190.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 178.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 175.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 43c | 168.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 47c | 155.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 35c | 155.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 67c | 148.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 144$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 139.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 121.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 117.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 50c | 116.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 63c | 113.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 39c | 110.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 109.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 105.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 95.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 95.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 95.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 68c | 91.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 87.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 29c | 84.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 59c | 83.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 35c | 81.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 37c | 80.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 60c | 78.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 62c | 77.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 77.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 66c | 75.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 67c | 74.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 46c | 70.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 69.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 68.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 50c | 67.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 67.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 63.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 63.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 60.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 51c | 55.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 53.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 50.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 55c | 50.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 69c | 49.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 49.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 54c | 49.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 48.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 47.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 41.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 48c | 41.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 51c | 41.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 56c | 39.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 38.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 27c | 38.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 37.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 46c | 36.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 31c | 35.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 34.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…cf94backed Yes | 35c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 61c | 32.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 32.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 58c | 31.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 58c | 30.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 49c | 29.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.