Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60eb484180756e88d23f8cd2772125cbe4c6a94986e1625a202bc0e7fd455edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 840.8$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 73c | 780.14$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 605.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 448.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 67c | 379.74$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.89 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 65c | 364$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 5c | 267.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 5c | 265.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 6c | 265.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 220.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 7c | 190.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 42c | 180.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 172.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 69c | 169.52$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 17c | 159.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 158$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 157.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 141.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 136.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 117.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 113.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 16c | 108.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 108.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 106.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 105.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 47c | 93.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 22c | 88.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 13c | 80.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 79.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 78.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed No | 65c | 73.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 69.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 67.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 70c | 63.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 31c | 59.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 57.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 53.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 60c | 51.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…4322backed Yes | 39c | 48.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 59c | 48.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 68c | 47.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 64c | 46.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 44.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 44c | 43.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…35d0backed No | 62c | 39.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 34.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 33.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 58c | 31.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 28.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 28.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 27.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 72c | 25.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 56c | 25.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 42c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 24.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…47abbacked No | 63c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 77c | 17.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 17.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.