Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb297e77d0bf1bd462e9e931abfd766767fa9930d40101addac5456e705d0af33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,538$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.88 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 19c | 588.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 564.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 524.21$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 17c | 308.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.53 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 8c | 307.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 263.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.65 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 11c | 256.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 224.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 200.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 161$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 123$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 17c | 117.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 19c | 115.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 112$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 105.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 94.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 93.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 84.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 83.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 61c | 55.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 30c | 53.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 78c | 52.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 25c | 50.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 76c | 48.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed No | 76c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 31c | 39.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 63c | 33.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 37c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…583cbacked Yes | 78c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 23.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 65c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 15.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.