Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca602f66e763eb03e34a04f8646211863328dddc41419b03de7e559998cb37c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 1c | 1,813$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,572$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 641.25$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 495.37$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 408.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 77c | 361.24$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.54 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 353.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 47c | 346.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.18 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 341.81$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 57c | 305.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.73 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 288$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 69c | 231.28$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 37c | 213.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…4089backed No | 56c | 199.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 195.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 184.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 160.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 153.94$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 147.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 60c | 124.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 119.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 110.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 108.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 104$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 98.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 94.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 47c | 88.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 86.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 44c | 84.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 82.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 82.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 44c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 77.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 75.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 70.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cd…13b6backed Yes | 44c | 69.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 49c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 54c | 67.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 65.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…f549backed Yes | 49c | 64.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 60.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 44c | 55.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 37c | 50.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked No | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 39.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…9282backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 38c | 33.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 39c | 32.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…ae20backed Yes | 65c | 29.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…583cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 60c | 17.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 17.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.