Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1b8075970c0b56979ff395594552879a2dac5ef76a20f5aa04ff19e3f8a480f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 1c | 3,601$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 698.63$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 461.51$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 314.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 29c | 170.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c53…3145backed Yes | 30c | 151$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed Yes | 34c | 144.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 114.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 69c | 106.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 92.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 29c | 69.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 63.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 60.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 59.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 55.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 74c | 51.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 42.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 36.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 69c | 36.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 34.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 30c | 33.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 30.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 70c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 25.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.