Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a1bc33fec50d86b21f6d0d78eb31826b4e2fce221b9d6cf505996498d8aff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4667…cab0backed Over | 51c | 4,926$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.64 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 49c | 3,322$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.35 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Under | 45c | 2,193$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.66 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 860.57$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.97 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Over | 51c | 856.41$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.64 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 48c | 818.33$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.74 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 48c | 774.65$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.84 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 51c | 738.63$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.93 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Under | 45c | 428.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 131 | 45%59 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Over | 53c | 370.26$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed Over | 51c | 304.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 38c | 247.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 69c | 246.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 63c | 241.89$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed Over | 51c | 232.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b02…ec47backed Under | 68c | 144.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Under | 31c | 128.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 38c | 84.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…9bb3backed Under | 42c | 77.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…eabbbacked Over | 61c | 76.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…5facbacked Over | 44c | 38.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 268 | 48.9%131 W · 137 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Over | 51c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…e36dbacked Over | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 58c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsBetBoom Team won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?No won
- Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.