CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2dee9ecff987ccba95aa813bfd4e77dcfb5e9b2a19699c6cea1667ef9af8b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof 1WIN, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Butterfly | 38c | 3,512$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.01 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Butterfly | 54c | 2,782$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.67 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…398abacked Butterfly | 47c | 2,086$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Butterfly | 29c | 1,510$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.84 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked 1WIN | 40c | 1,265$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.81 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…a98cbacked 1WIN | 62c | 1,222$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed Butterfly | 49c | 1,118$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.55 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Butterfly | 42c | 1,082$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.02 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Butterfly | 64c | 1,000$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.46 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…300dbacked 1WIN | 52c | 763.1$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Butterfly | 35c | 725.47$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.93 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Butterfly | 65c | 586.09$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1WIN | 53c | 543.64$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.59 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked 1WIN | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 259 | 44.8%116 W · 143 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed Butterfly | 44c | 480$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.6 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…2d3dbacked Butterfly | 52c | 374.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Butterfly | 36c | 312.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.16 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed Butterfly | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed 1WIN | 49c | 294.46$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…8ee6backed Butterfly | 50c | 273$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed 1WIN | 57c | 267.04$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 242 | 60.3%146 W · 96 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Butterfly | 50c | 250.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked 1WIN | 50c | 250.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…5405backed Butterfly | 21c | 250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Butterfly | 25c | 230$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…efd3backed Butterfly | 37c | 210.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked 1WIN | 60c | 207$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Butterfly | 56c | 195.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed 1WIN | 56c | 189.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Butterfly | 41c | 185.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked 1WIN | 55c | 185.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked 1WIN | 56c | 165.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked 1WIN | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Butterfly | 39c | 135.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…d64cbacked 1WIN | 73c | 125.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Butterfly | 36c | 118.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 228 | 37.3%85 W · 143 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Butterfly | 30c | 111.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked 1WIN | 37c | 110.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 1WIN | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…a099backed Butterfly | 37c | 93.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Butterfly | 50c | 89.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Butterfly | 33c | 87.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Butterfly | 37c | 72.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…4d80backed Butterfly | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…2775backed 1WIN | 63c | 61.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed 1WIN | 58c | 59.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked 1WIN | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Butterfly | 46c | 58.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked 1WIN | 77c | 57.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Butterfly | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…2a3cbacked Butterfly | 36c | 54.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…e53bbacked 1WIN | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked 1WIN | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…8580backed 1WIN | 56c | 44.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed 1WIN | 65c | 44.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed 1WIN | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0c…4d9cbacked Butterfly | 36c | 37.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked 1WIN | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…cca8backed 1WIN | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed 1WIN | 53c | 20.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed 1WIN | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6212…811ebacked 1WIN | 65c | 15.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsButterfly won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5)Butterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.