TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70ff…f058backed Detroit Tigers77c1,114$858 inLost-$8584067.5%27 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Tampa Bay Rays23c1,078$248 inWon+$830.1264752.4%339 W · 308 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Detroit Tigers20c798$156 inLost-$155.611,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers33c787.62$260 inLost-$259.918,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers17c544.82$93 inLost-$92.628,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed Detroit Tigers33c450$149 inLost-$148.52250%11 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+238.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays75c201.28$151 inWon+$50.293,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Tampa Bay Rays62c186.48$116 inWon+$70.863351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers39c100$39 inLost-$38.511,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers37c99$37 inLost-$36.638,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Tampa Bay Rays63c99$62 inWon+$36.6328245.7%129 W · 153 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Tampa Bay Rays40c66.65$26 inWon+$40.232434.6%112 W · 212 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Detroit Tigers69c17$12 inLost-$11.711,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.