MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a294d2a62f0a15c36ff3726d2798b96089fcb4eebf3980076e0b3278ac845e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5461…92bebacked Over | 31c | 16,438$5,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,165.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 69c | 8,786$6,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.45 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 69c | 3,107$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.05 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 70c | 1,980$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.88 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 9c | 1,961$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 9c | 1,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 1,125$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 1,080$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 69c | 858.2$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 30c | 674.36$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.03 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 30c | 468.32$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 30c | 420.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 7c | 301.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 137 | 25.5%35 W · 102 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 70c | 284.28$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 70c | 265.95$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 14c | 254.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 30c | 221$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 70c | 220$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 16c | 106.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 69c | 58.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…9085backed Under | 71c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…d49dbacked Under | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 69c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 70c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.