MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af9160cc073a4c605654eabc935872268488c20a5008b8c4fe722eed9be9005
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 45c | 22,223$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000.35 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 15,701$8,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,065.42 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…fda2backed No | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 42c | 6,910$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.24 | 901 | 46.3%417 W · 484 L | +25.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 55c | 5,820$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.89 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 57c | 5,749$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.07 | 718 | 53.3%383 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 43c | 4,590$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.68 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed No | 58c | 3,447$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.62 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 497 | 50.1%249 W · 248 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 2,634$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.06 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 2,540$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.32 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 1,157 | 49.2%569 W · 588 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 57c | 1,390$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.7 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 58c | 1,032$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.55 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 42c | 960.2$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.28 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…ab15backed No | 57c | 622.95$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 55c | 446.42$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.89 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 43c | 419.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.27 | 716 | 52.4%375 W · 341 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed No | 57c | 384.67$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 55c | 319$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 276 | 51.4%142 W · 134 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Yes | 42c | 296.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 520 | 45.2%235 W · 285 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed No | 55c | 203$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Yes | 33c | 182$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked No | 57c | 172.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 45c | 133$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 757 | 53.2%403 W · 354 L | +24.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 64c | 120.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 25c | 116.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked No | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed No | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Yes | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…74c8backed No | 58c | 88.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…0f04backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 62c | 60.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 266 | 48.1%128 W · 138 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit TigersTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.