Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb313795d7497cdb72e86c1ee8f594e471cc2d86efc6a302c6fee602d86fc0bd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 8c | 794.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 744.7$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 658.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 28c | 578.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 548.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 9c | 497.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 455.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 435.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…8e0ebacked No | 73c | 418.7$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 401.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 358.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 290.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 18c | 282.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 73c | 236.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed Yes | 14c | 226.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 78c | 205.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 35c | 199.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 193.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 187.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 165.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 19c | 163.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…46b6backed Yes | 10c | 150.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 145.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde6d…cf3dbacked Yes | 9c | 122.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 73c | 118$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 115.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 102.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 14c | 98.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 22c | 98.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…e7c8backed Yes | 40c | 94.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 26c | 91.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 69c | 90.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 84.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 79.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…9770backed No | 65c | 74.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 29c | 72.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 69.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 20c | 63.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 31c | 59.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 39c | 54.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 54.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked Yes | 35c | 53.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 77c | 50.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 28c | 49.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 22c | 47.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…6909backed No | 72c | 44.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 67c | 43.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 38c | 39.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…66a4backed No | 64c | 38.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 34.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…7731backed No | 72c | 31.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…9ff4backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 68c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 65c | 21.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…9988backed No | 64c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe365…c0d8backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…6441backed No | 73c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed No | 79c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 13.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574f…dde6backed No | 79c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked No | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.