Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca233e6b4aa0fddb21d0cded1132bb47262fbab1bf6b91df674d7fa283ad67fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 15c | 3,115$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,656.05 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,343$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.09 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 30c | 1,049$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 601.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.17 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 41c | 576.89$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.58 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 568.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.25 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…9958backed Yes | 2c | 529.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.85 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 10c | 460.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.19 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 440.65$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 13c | 432.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 20c | 403.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.17 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 354.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.77 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 310.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 266.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 5c | 221.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.69 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 55c | 199.51$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 38c | 195$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 21c | 193.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed No | 47c | 177.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 49c | 170.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 74c | 163.31$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 61c | 158.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 46c | 147.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 43c | 147.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 57c | 137.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…8875backed No | 57c | 120.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 114.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 44c | 107.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 44c | 107.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 55c | 99.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 56c | 95.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 43c | 93.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 38c | 93.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 48c | 93.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 84.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…cba6backed Yes | 13c | 78.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 49c | 74.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 40c | 69.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 49c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 54c | 65.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 70c | 63.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 62.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…bbe0backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 59.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 34c | 53.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 45c | 52.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 52.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 63c | 50.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 59c | 45.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 29c | 44.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 35c | 43.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 45c | 42.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes | 45c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 41.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 47c | 40.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 50c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 49c | 38.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 41c | 37.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes | 51c | 37.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 38c | 37.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 56c | 36.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 42c | 35.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 58c | 33.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 43c | 29.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked Yes | 64c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…ff99backed No | 52c | 26.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 50c | 26.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 53c | 25.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…ca1cbacked Yes | 63c | 25.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 50c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 23.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 23.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 57c | 22.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 50c | 22.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…6055backed No | 53c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 50c | 21.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…adbabacked No | 64c | 18.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 57c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 62c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 17.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.