Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893c9378cf327bc37f0526850afbfc8b4ea983b7b7f8851d034abdf4a4989524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 18c | 1,556$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 1,542$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.19 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 71c | 1,101$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.65 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…f20bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,060$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 16c | 967.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 766.22$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.22 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 424.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 383.75$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…be89backed No | 78c | 373.98$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed No | 63c | 317.64$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 41c | 309.66$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 18c | 256.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 80c | 248.35$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.68 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 248.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 64c | 244.54$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff0…48b3backed No | 14c | 242.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +591.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…8c21backed Yes | 44c | 216.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 201.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed No | 78c | 199.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…e7c8backed No | 79c | 198.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…6405backed Yes | 62c | 191.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 10c | 190.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 19c | 190.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 12c | 171.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 159.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 158.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 16c | 152.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e56…589abacked No | 57c | 150.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed No | 16c | 149.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 16c | 139.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed No | 12c | 139.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…3e50backed Yes | 64c | 125.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 31c | 125.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08a…671dbacked Yes | 33c | 123.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed Yes | 29c | 114.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked No | 11c | 109.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.07 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 15c | 106.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…506bbacked Yes | 17c | 106.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 104.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 24c | 102.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 15c | 102.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 76c | 100.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 11c | 96.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 35c | 88.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9d…057abacked Yes | 37c | 85.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe4…7d42backed Yes | 43c | 85.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 28c | 84.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 17c | 80.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 79.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 60c | 77.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 54c | 71.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 26c | 70.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 72c | 68.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 68.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 28c | 67.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 41c | 65.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 37c | 65.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 64c | 65.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 62c | 63.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 62c | 63.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 17c | 62.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 60.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 35c | 60.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 57.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 53.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…2272backed No | 20c | 52.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +409.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 65c | 52.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 51.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 46.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 67c | 44.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 38c | 39.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 29c | 36.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…adecbacked Yes | 31c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…9004backed Yes | 40c | 36.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 33.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…0aa4backed No | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 69c | 30.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…eb6ebacked Yes | 63c | 29.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 52c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 46c | 25.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f58…55c9backed Yes | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525c…23acbacked Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.