Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb33e9e9d7a156424557bbf7e151546c4a29afd40c00499cd8e2fe877cb637c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 1,200$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.28 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 1,096$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 566.5$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 492$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 444.84$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 27c | 412.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 359.65$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 37c | 320.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 31c | 295.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 271.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 266$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 252.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 20c | 183.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 32c | 176.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 36c | 174.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 168$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 167.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 37c | 162.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 62c | 153.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 67c | 150.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 148.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 137.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 64c | 132.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 128.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 33c | 117.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 71c | 116.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 50c | 115.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 110.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 68c | 109.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 104.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 97.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 96.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 95.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 72c | 94.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 90.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 43c | 90.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 42c | 79.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 38c | 76.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 65c | 75.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 74.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 74.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 71.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 76c | 68.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 67.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…9ad4backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 57.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 55.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 52.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 68c | 52.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 50.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 64c | 47.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 45.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…bb96backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 36c | 39.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 65c | 37.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 29c | 35.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 35.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 34.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed No | 54c | 29.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 29.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 69c | 29.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…6f57backed Yes | 38c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 23.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 64c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…18aebacked No | 68c | 20.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.