Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4484c782722c8beebc5187605897d3bfff5c93c8c4b6863763238a1d327c21cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 18c | 2,314$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 8c | 1,247$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 857.04$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.05 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 778.77$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 543.5$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed No | 68c | 533.31$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 47c | 447$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 40c | 346.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 3c | 329.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 52c | 306$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 69c | 276$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 9c | 258.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 54c | 237.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 219.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 208.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 10c | 202.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 19c | 202.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 69c | 168.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 40c | 133.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 124.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 121.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 47c | 112.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 18c | 111.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 57c | 110.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 110.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 107.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 107.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 92.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 89.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 61c | 87.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 86.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 69c | 77.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 75.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 23c | 73.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 25c | 62.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 61.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 59.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 57.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 49c | 56.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 57c | 53.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 51.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 48c | 50.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 47c | 48.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 47.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 63c | 46.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 32c | 38.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 50c | 38.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 37c | 34.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 69c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 69c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 42c | 33.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 61c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 64c | 31.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 54c | 30.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 50c | 28.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 49c | 23.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 67c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 48c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 66c | 20.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…71b4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.