MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb36d3bd0461340a00be8eb4eec33a754646b53d76ccbae345d8eef5e52215585
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 47c | 5,240$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.3 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 53c | 4,118$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,182.54 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 263.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 258.62$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked No | 48c | 168.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 53c | 163.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 54c | 123$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 44c | 119.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 56c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Bravesthis page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.