MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf217da76f50f9489a147929c1163882af86b20c8b2a45ea344842e36a31ff9d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 38c | 9,834$3,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,048.69 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 6,313$3,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,796.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 62c | 3,335$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 31c | 3,209$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.33 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 2,748$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 61c | 2,429$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.17 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 1,539$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 68c | 1,354$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.43 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 1,098$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 62c | 1,024$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 70c | 671$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 51c | 600$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 38c | 501$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.62 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 67c | 485$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.6 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 70c | 289$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 62c | 250.68$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 25c | 235$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.54 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Under | 62c | 217.74$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 63c | 165$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 162.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 153.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 38c | 124$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 34c | 122.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 62c | 119$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 26c | 112.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 73c | 107.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 63c | 107$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 69c | 98.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…639abacked Over | 64c | 96.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 72c | 96.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 47c | 88.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 37c | 78.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 42c | 74.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 26c | 72.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 69c | 71.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 60c | 71.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 63c | 69.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 40c | 58.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 49c | 55.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 33c | 45.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 61c | 43.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 41.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 40.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 37c | 34.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 34.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 72c | 33.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 55c | 31.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 37c | 29.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 56c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 59c | 17.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.