MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1141d5dc329abcffacf968820412ca8f5da5c538d486212a666ba77053815bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 11,116$6,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,087.45 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 10,341$4,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,790.91 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 9,715$4,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,956.05 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 7,022$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 2,483$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 2,310$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.4 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 2,150$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.55 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 1,819$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 1,365$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 1,129$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 957.99$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 901.71$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.74 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 748.21$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…69aabacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 598.14$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.14 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedde…5db2backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 476.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 43c | 465.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.66 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 324.04$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 298.97$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 213.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Miami Marlins | 24c | 212.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 180$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 147.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 142.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 107.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Atlanta Braves | 59c | 106$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…abc5backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 102.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 99.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 97.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Atlanta Braves | 47c | 94.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 65.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 50.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 48.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 44.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 39.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 34.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 33.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 31.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 29.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 28.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.