MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51d8249f12c7e4e048dd5771c26b2ebf2981735966f2b5168cf432a7beaaa6bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 6,793$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,551.06 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 4,500$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 2,987$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 2,707$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Atlanta Braves | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 1,917$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 33c | 1,308$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.58 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,024$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.08 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 1,008$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 750$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 13c | 679.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 390$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 353.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.89 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 333$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 299$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Atlanta Braves | 33c | 269.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.32 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 151.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 150.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 146.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 100.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Atlanta Braves | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Atlanta Braves | 76c | 92.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 60.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 32c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 35.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 31.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 29.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 23.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Atlanta Braves | 78c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 19.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-5.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.