Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3775bf6420351fc6685998453eaaa42151e9452904af86831843783caf42977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 7c | 716.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.51 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 665.47$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 12c | 470$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.47 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…debbbacked Yes | 4c | 432$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 15c | 365.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.23 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 44c | 291.22$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.02 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 18c | 283.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 273.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 18c | 239.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 10c | 214.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.07 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 10c | 213.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.35 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 38c | 201.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 177.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 10c | 167$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 152.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 56c | 145.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 101.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 58c | 92.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…9270backed Yes | 16c | 91.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 61c | 90.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 89.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 17c | 89.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 13c | 84.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 79.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…8773backed Yes | 16c | 76.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +212.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 18c | 73.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 37c | 70.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 27c | 66.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 65.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 58.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 55.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 54.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 44.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 77c | 43.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 42.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 75c | 39.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 49c | 37.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 33c | 37.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 38c | 36.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 30.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 72c | 25.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 24.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2532…52b6backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 56c | 18.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 18.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 73c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.