Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c369859e29cfff09a28a3732738e51b5566fbe046d31f5a585487b1c83164ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 600.64$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.21 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 397.36$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 23c | 343.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 47c | 320.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 13c | 300.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 246.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 22c | 235.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 223.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 71c | 210.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 44c | 209.37$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…debbbacked Yes | 47c | 204.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 190.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 185.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 183.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 18c | 168.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 163.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 156.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 128.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 24c | 125.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 62c | 117.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 71c | 112.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 111.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 110.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 90.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 43c | 86.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 33c | 84.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 83.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 41c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 79.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 76.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 71.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 68.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 67.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 72c | 64.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 62.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…edc9backed Yes | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 55.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 50.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 47.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 42.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 64c | 40.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 29c | 39.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 38.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 43c | 35.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 35.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 35.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 33.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 36c | 33.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 46c | 29.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 58c | 29.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 34c | 29.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 48c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 23.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 21.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 59c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 19.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 77c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.