Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6daaa9e6dacf4ee5aaddbb967fd928423e59b665df6f4eb943c03018402a80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,866$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 59c | 753$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.47 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 69c | 466.33$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 428.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 389.67$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 55c | 323.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 33c | 302.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 296.61$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 285.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 58c | 278.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 65c | 263.68$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 56c | 260.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked No | 72c | 250.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 54c | 249.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 228.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 217.06$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 214$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 213.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…c7f5backed No | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 46c | 199.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 7c | 184.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 177.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 174$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 68c | 162$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 55c | 155.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 52c | 142.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 37c | 130.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 56c | 126.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…debbbacked Yes | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 44c | 112.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 71c | 110.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 27c | 108.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 107.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 107.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 101.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 92.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 89.28$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 47c | 84.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 37c | 82.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 82.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 80.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 78.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 76.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 63c | 73.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 41c | 73.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 70.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 70.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 68.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 66.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 74c | 64.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…d8f8backed Yes | 77c | 63.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 35c | 62.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 62.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 31c | 55.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 39c | 54.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 54c | 53.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Yes | 72c | 52.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 51.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c4…79dfbacked Yes | 35c | 50.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 49.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 59c | 48.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 47.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 46.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 46.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 69c | 43.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 43.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 40.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 35c | 40.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 38c | 39.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 63c | 38.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 53c | 36.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 34c | 35.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 44c | 33.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 62c | 33.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 60c | 31.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 42c | 29.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 28.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 49c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 41c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 26.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.