TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes1c10,866$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.261,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No59c753$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.476845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No69c466.33$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9972042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c428.85$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No58c389.67$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.961,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No55c323.21$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No33c302.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.037748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No55c296.61$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c285.84$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No58c278.03$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8919060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71d0…b73abacked Yes65c263.68$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.510757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No56c260.3$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6428847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fd…d60dbacked No72c250.89$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.891650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes54c249.13$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.638247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes45c228.91$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9620452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes47c217.06$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0282742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes30c214$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.23,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes40c213.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.752,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf6…c7f5backed No62c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes46c199.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.53540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes7c184.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.078830.7%27 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes34c180$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.214833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes42c177.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.911,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes46c174$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8543932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes68c162$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes55c155.43$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No52c142.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9824262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes37c130.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5159923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes56c126.86$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5142849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb290…debbbacked Yes40c123$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+733.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No44c112.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.423560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes71c110.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7736930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x722e…faddbacked No46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.012842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes27c108.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.425540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No58c107.55$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.652,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes41c107.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.840337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes44c101.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ef…e466backed Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.66633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes45c99.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9934831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c92.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c89.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.764,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes47c84.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No37c82.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.882,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes52c82.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.753,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No60c80.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.842555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes37c78.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.891,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes70c76.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.453,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes63c73.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.627037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes41c73.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1418328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No34c72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7915236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c70.64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.659,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c70.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9898236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No39c68.71$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.72,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No58c66.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.672,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.613,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes74c64.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8812350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa859…d8f8backed Yes77c63.78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.331030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes35c62.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes49c62.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.22,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes32c61.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No60c56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1519861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes31c55.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1330834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes34c55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.648641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes39c54.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.333327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No54c53.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.720056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0368…9874backed Yes72c52.05$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.48450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No54c51.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.831,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c4…79dfbacked Yes35c50.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.29868.4%67 W · 31 L+11.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+23.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No56c49.28$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6837150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No59c48.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes41c47.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2962137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c46.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.885,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No61c46.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.262,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes69c43.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes38c43.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.651,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No63c40.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.991,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes35c40.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.257856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes38c39.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8526442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No63c38.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4886847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes53c36.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3510447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No54c36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.561,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes34c35.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.944245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.353,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0814053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes44c33.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8710554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No62c33.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No37c32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked No60c31.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.744872.9%35 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes42c29.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.331748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c28.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.494,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes49c28.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.764632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes41c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.577926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.725,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.683,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes48c26.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.