TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants65c2,020$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.822,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates34c1,698$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.496,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates36c1,676$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.4775248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates40c1,274$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants64c1,110$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.332,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed San Francisco Giants60c1,030$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41533864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Pittsburgh Pirates59c869.2$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.4970546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates22c718.68$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.229,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates15c700$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants41c534.69$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.5211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants64c378.61$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.34,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed San Francisco Giants61c377.93$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.9424551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked San Francisco Giants64c275.87$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.312,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates40c233.9$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.291,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Pittsburgh Pirates35c199.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3582551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants46c199.23$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.275,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Pittsburgh Pirates36c198$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2867444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a52…baafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates41c191.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.541811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-73.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed San Francisco Giants64c170$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.213452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked San Francisco Giants64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.254450%22 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c153$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.073246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates20c139.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5755847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed San Francisco Giants64c136.46$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1322350.7%113 W · 110 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked San Francisco Giants57c132.92$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.863933.3%13 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-36.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants59c116.26$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.948,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2573…2726backed San Francisco Giants46c108.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9123051.7%119 W · 111 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates34c88.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9966056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants64c80.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.961,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates80c75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608484.5%71 W · 13 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick76cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates39c73.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.831,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c67.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.961,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed San Francisco Giants64c64.97$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.551,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked San Francisco Giants64c62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3221353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants64c60$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Pittsburgh Pirates40c59.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6184122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Pittsburgh Pirates35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.951,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed San Francisco Giants74c49.81$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9513046.9%61 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f77…32cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c46.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.64,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e1…cbf2backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c39.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.136743.3%29 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x850a…7dcbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates59c37.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.781172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants65c34.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.961,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c33.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.16,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates40c32.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.124,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed San Francisco Giants60c32.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1211155.9%62 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates35c32.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee5…be70backed Pittsburgh Pirates37c32.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.881540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked San Francisco Giants64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.255062%31 W · 19 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked San Francisco Giants65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7717450.6%88 W · 86 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates44c28.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked San Francisco Giants52c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.567742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa06…74c3backed San Francisco Giants79c25.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.323759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants49c20.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.632,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfddc…931abacked San Francisco Giants64c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.842259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.