TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over49c21,183$10,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,807.831,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Under53c14,192$7,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,486.4955053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under51c6,860$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.3211,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under51c5,343$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.873,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over49c3,752$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.512,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Over48c3,310$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.2439047.4%185 W · 205 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5601,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c2,903$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.1312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over49c2,718$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.131,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c2,528$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.475,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over47c2,045$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.8286548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over46c1,975$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.482,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under52c1,662$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.474,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under51c1,633$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.831,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Under53c1,532$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.7821052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over48c1,010$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.2573748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under53c1,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5252,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under54c946.48$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.154152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under52c891.34$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.946,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under52c850.64$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.241,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over49c842.41$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2389153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Under51c740$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.34151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under51c715.51$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.9132251.6%166 W · 156 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Over46c708.42$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.5511741.9%49 W · 68 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under53c660.38$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35029950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over50c618.73$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3728154.4%153 W · 128 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c563.26$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.219,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2567…2371backed Under53c390$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.71656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over47c382.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9850949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over57c350.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.872,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under54c349.89$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.941,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under54c265.05$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1312352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13077050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Under54c207.46$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0318551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10282741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1062850%14 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Under54c183.11$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8824350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over70c181.1$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.95,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under54c168.13$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7945246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over49c163$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1375049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under51c163$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1315148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over47c162.21$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.571,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf23…dcb7backed Under54c138$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.525738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under54c115.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2351555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5440…2f1ebacked Over46c106.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8deb…1ef3backed Under54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under54c97.04$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.427146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec45…6c6dbacked Over49c79.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7417058.2%99 W · 71 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under51c78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7821353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Under47c65.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8384140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under54c64.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3547549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under54c59.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3918353.6%98 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5760…40aabacked Under54c59.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.295337.7%20 W · 33 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under52c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1672247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over48c50.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2325249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Over47c49.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9813152.7%69 W · 62 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Under51c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52133.3%7 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-38.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over60c45.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1382551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over53c45.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.436,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.352449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c44.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.188,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked Over59c44.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.322857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Under54c43.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.586741.8%28 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under47c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2199744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a37…4daebacked Over47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.555062%31 W · 19 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over59c36.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.124654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under54c32.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5729450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8858…ed3ebacked Over47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9113641.9%57 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb46…3692backed Over46c31.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over48c31.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.481,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.752,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over57c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.736,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Under51c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2672648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5c…fb95backed Over47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.784332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Under54c24.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0265359.6%389 W · 264 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under54c23.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4311551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over57c22.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.882,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19f8…52d4backed Under48c22.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Under51c22.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5228043.2%121 W · 159 L-23.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over47c21.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.461,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee84…becbbacked Over50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021852.8%115 W · 103 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under54c19.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5623851.3%122 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x600b…14b1backed Under54c19.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.282445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under54c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2629446.6%137 W · 157 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d5…9622backed Under54c18.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.117643.4%33 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.