Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3d3b7fb7c334993d53d78a2e4157a7f4a04ca0d8da21da55e6f5351ce6b2cbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Qarabağ Ağdam FKof Qarabağ Ağdam FK, ÍF Vestri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed ÍF Vestri | 25c | 4,914$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.05 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed ÍF Vestri | 4c | 3,326$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 77c | 2,163$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.65 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 79c | 2,156$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.12 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ÍF Vestri | 4c | 982.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed ÍF Vestri | 16c | 680.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked ÍF Vestri | 4c | 487.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…808fbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 76c | 453.84$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 77c | 452.17$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked ÍF Vestri | 16c | 433.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed ÍF Vestri | 15c | 254.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 79c | 187.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ÍF Vestri | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 77c | 95.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed ÍF Vestri | 15c | 78.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed ÍF Vestri | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed ÍF Vestri | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 80c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ad52backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 74c | 55.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…211abacked ÍF Vestri | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…93d3backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 77c | 43.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 75c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Qarabağ Ağdam FK | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5)this page
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: O/U 0.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: O/U 3.5Under won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: O/U 4.5Under won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: O/U 5.5Under won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: ÍF Vestri O/U 0.5Under won
- Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. ÍF Vestri: ÍF Vestri O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5)Qarabağ Ağdam FK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.