Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Alexis Galarneau
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3dfe1a9b7d0a98526dc06a592d9b3e135c869a19b5be5159e1c04d7e0da3273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexis Galarneauof Keegan Smith, Alexis Galarneau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keegan Smith | 6c | 50,334$3,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222.75 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Keegan Smith | 5c | 7,391$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.53 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Keegan Smith | 6c | 4,787$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Keegan Smith | 35c | 3,632$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.59 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Keegan Smith | 6c | 3,143$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alexis Galarneau | 59c | 2,601$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.24 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Keegan Smith | 18c | 2,257$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 306 | 47.7%146 W · 160 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…3facbacked Keegan Smith | 44c | 2,236$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.04 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Keegan Smith | 2c | 2,072$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Alexis Galarneau | 66c | 1,611$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.56 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Keegan Smith | 41c | 1,355$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Keegan Smith | 41c | 1,330$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.97 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…7f94backed Keegan Smith | 36c | 1,324$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Keegan Smith | 11c | 1,180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Keegan Smith | 6c | 829.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Alexis Galarneau | 60c | 822.48$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.99 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Keegan Smith | 4c | 820$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Keegan Smith | 13c | 614.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Alexis Galarneau | 60c | 367.17$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.87 | 1,679 | 48.1%808 W · 871 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Keegan Smith | 28c | 257$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Keegan Smith | 12c | 251.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 464 | 35.3%164 W · 300 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Keegan Smith | 14c | 247.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Keegan Smith | 43c | 243$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Keegan Smith | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Keegan Smith | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebe…6dccbacked Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 229.31$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Keegan Smith | 42c | 222$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 306 | 48.4%148 W · 158 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Alexis Galarneau | 59c | 212.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Keegan Smith | 11c | 206.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Keegan Smith | 35c | 206.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Alexis Galarneau | 59c | 199.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 528 | 47%248 W · 280 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Keegan Smith | 12c | 172.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 10.2%9 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…c784backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Alexis Galarneau | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Alexis Galarneau | 57c | 153.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 141.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 306 | 44.1%135 W · 171 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Keegan Smith | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 47.7%156 W · 171 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…8869backed Keegan Smith | 44c | 118.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 117 | 35%41 W · 76 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Keegan Smith | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Alexis Galarneau | 57c | 96.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Keegan Smith | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…4523backed Keegan Smith | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Alexis Galarneau | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Alexis Galarneau | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…c618backed Alexis Galarneau | 68c | 63.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 128 | 60.2%77 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Alexis Galarneau | 73c | 63.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Keegan Smith | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Alexis Galarneau | 70c | 56.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36dc…531bbacked Keegan Smith | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Alexis Galarneau | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…fc38backed Keegan Smith | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…f972backed Keegan Smith | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Keegan Smith | 41c | 47.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,226 | 52%637 W · 589 L | +44.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Keegan Smith | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 857 | 48.2%413 W · 444 L | +33.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Alexis Galarneau | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Keegan Smith | 41c | 36.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Keegan Smith | 42c | 36.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd7…1735backed Alexis Galarneau | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 139 | 66.2%92 W · 47 L | +15.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Alexis Galarneau | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 50cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Keegan Smith | 41c | 31.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Alexis Galarneau | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Alexis Galarneau | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Alexis Galarneau | 72c | 22.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Alexis Galarneau | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.