Music · resolved market
Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb42aeedea08742420fff3f3520a03885bb124fa63d3e12ec1e319b6486a4258b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,386$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 61c | 2,248$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.18 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 49c | 266.82$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 79c | 239$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…3944backed No | 29c | 146.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 58c | 145.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 136.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 135.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e5bdbacked No | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…cebebacked Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…141abacked Yes | 12c | 106.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…971cbacked No | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c54bbacked Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 85.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…e87abacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a4…406ebacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146b…203bbacked Yes | 75c | 68.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 37c | 34.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 52c | 31.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 45c | 27.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…dc14backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Fate Of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 24?this page
- Will I Just Might by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week of January 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.