CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb476aee7aae5409a05b29ce905f6d91fb4b91077f4cf9b97f8dde734fa522e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 18c | 1,163$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.01 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…9194backed Over | 34c | 580.35$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked Over | 36c | 534.22$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 92 | 32.6%30 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Under | 79c | 375.91$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 21c | 320$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 64c | 177.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 36c | 130.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 78c | 104.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Under | 64c | 96.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 76c | 95.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 66c | 94.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 65c | 87.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…0134backed Over | 36c | 80.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Under | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 64c | 75.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Over | 35c | 68.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | -32.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 19c | 57.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…2152backed Over | 33c | 55.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 65c | 39.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 73c | 34.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Over | 34c | 30.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 238 | 51.7%123 W · 115 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Under | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 401 | 55.1%221 W · 180 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe793…5b23backed Under | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 452 | 38.3%173 W · 279 L | -29.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Under | 72c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…ea10backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Under | 80c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group BNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.