TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, HOTU
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$493,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$594,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed HOTU29c166,920$47,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,860.883438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Natus Vincere70c46,806$32,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,041.6922049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Natus Vincere70c42,800$29,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,8406160.7%37 W · 24 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Natus Vincere71c40,273$28,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,681.964557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Natus Vincere71c40,000$28,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,6005444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked HOTU30c31,949$9,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,579.914738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed HOTU30c31,933$9,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5808552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Natus Vincere73c30,000$21,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed HOTU7c13,024$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.7832425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere79c9,742$7,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.8849646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed HOTU30c7,262$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.736126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-31%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Natus Vincere72c6,196$4,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.2416152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Natus Vincere72c6,000$4,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71023243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere74c5,830$4,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.941,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Natus Vincere71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4505543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere74c4,135$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.352,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Natus Vincere75c3,952$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.0628443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere78c3,683$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.982,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed HOTU27c3,606$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.435947.5%28 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Natus Vincere79c3,491$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.0328453.5%152 W · 132 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Natus Vincere72c2,970$2,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.6527658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked HOTU26c2,949$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.6229235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere71c2,599$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.6551252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Natus Vincere72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5609148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked HOTU30c1,919$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.2961228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59c…4da7backed Natus Vincere73c1,702$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.2615264.5%98 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Natus Vincere71c1,500$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43010058%58 W · 42 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed Natus Vincere72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42013044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere72c1,500$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked HOTU28c1,492$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.5932536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU18c1,456$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere73c1,420$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.1664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Natus Vincere76c1,420$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.0978963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbf…8cf6backed HOTU28c1,371$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.591520%3 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed HOTU11c1,287$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.175,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked HOTU22c1,283$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.018232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere75c1,275$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.3745058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere75c1,260$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.44,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4888…c7d3backed HOTU22c1,250$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed HOTU25c1,222$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.56041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed HOTU8c1,210$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4727831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed HOTU10c1,063$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3136554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7eb…bfbfbacked Natus Vincere75c1,002$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.598145.7%37 W · 44 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x56bd…e58dbacked Natus Vincere69c999.98$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.9915857.6%91 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Natus Vincere79c993.66$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2940950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked HOTU23c992.08$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1835242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed HOTU24c974.38$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6750054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Natus Vincere74c971.1$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.4937445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed HOTU20c957.45$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.392425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed HOTU21c953.48$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere71c872.55$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.041,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce2…9787backed HOTU2c847.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere69c796.9$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9544648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed HOTU23c782.49$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6314839.2%58 W · 90 L-15.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked HOTU20c769.98$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.82,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Natus Vincere75c756.59$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.156058.3%35 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked HOTU18c742.43$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.213,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d03…100ebacked Natus Vincere74c739.32$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.2241069.3%284 W · 126 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed HOTU15c733$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9513743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HOTU21c718.31$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.895,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed HOTU15c695.93$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3929934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere77c690.02$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.51,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d7a…87c7backed Natus Vincere80c686.31$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.42171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HOTU25c657.76$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.445,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed HOTU24c616.62$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5820344.3%90 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Natus Vincere77c609.12$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.839970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked HOTU17c581.27$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.211,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere70c570.32$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.567,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x417f…f97bbacked HOTU21c550.35$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.85133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x626e…0bfebacked Natus Vincere79c545.04$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed HOTU27c534.42$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.191936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd6…e33abacked Natus Vincere77c512.31$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b2…2171backed HOTU25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked HOTU10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere75c493.76$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.412,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked HOTU28c493.11$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9435449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6d…942cbacked HOTU20c476$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.211452.6%60 W · 54 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked HOTU19c421.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.166137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Natus Vincere79c420.72$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6959343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed HOTU23c414.7$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3813238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ea…59a1backed HOTU28c414.68$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.7919238%73 W · 119 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked HOTU19c399.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7694645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Natus Vincere74c399.08$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7659049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked HOTU8c394.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2427548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d2…662abacked HOTU13c361.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.051050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef35…c333backed HOTU28c351.26$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.358765.5%57 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed HOTU28c348.83$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4224544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked HOTU28c348.83$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.429058.9%53 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfacf…44adbacked Natus Vincere78c345.38$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.984555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2913…d241backed HOTU27c342.57$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.441850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked HOTU28c339.39$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.681662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed HOTU16c327.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.14,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…8796backed HOTU34c314.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6228254.6%154 W · 128 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed HOTU15c307.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5618426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere74c304.73$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.662,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Natus Vincere78c303.65$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.857358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked HOTU22c299.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3600…f72bbacked Natus Vincere66c296.85$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9331950.5%161 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6579…b0a5backed HOTU25c280.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1710529.5%31 W · 74 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0e…27c3backed Natus Vincere78c279.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.981225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.