TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, HOTU
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$490,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$552,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,291 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63a5…8e33backed HOTU22c158,160$34,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,070.13438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Natus Vincere79c50,000$39,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5007363%46 W · 27 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked HOTU14c44,804$6,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,194.8430726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere76c33,861$25,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,004.213,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed HOTU18c22,231$3,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,941.465848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked HOTU21c21,319$4,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,404.934738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed HOTU20c11,260$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.468552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere77c7,038$5,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.242,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed HOTU19c4,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed HOTU17c3,750$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.546149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed HOTU17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51013044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed HOTU18c2,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed HOTU14c2,419$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.545,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked HOTU18c2,300$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4149148.4%44 W · 47 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked HOTU14c2,250$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.561228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed HOTU16c2,218$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.8536645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked HOTU19c1,977$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.728443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed HOTU16c1,822$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.526041.7%25 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09a0…dc24backed HOTU18c1,591$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.42835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05b2…415abacked HOTU17c1,511$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed HOTU10c1,460$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4648437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed HOTU18c1,362$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1664552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed HOTU10c1,340$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4313238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed HOTU15c1,298$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.652,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed HOTU10c1,116$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.632227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere79c1,060$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3151252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed HOTU20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1bcc…0d8abacked HOTU4c999.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9721519.1%41 W · 174 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Natus Vincere79c980.5$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.9313850%69 W · 69 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked HOTU19c972.72$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.49232.6%30 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Natus Vincere78c955.64$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.244252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed HOTU17c950.2$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5365546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked HOTU17c930.1$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1240950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked HOTU15c911.95$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.561,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed HOTU19c904.05$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.241,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Natus Vincere75c731.18$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.1756732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere80c708.09$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.781,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere73c600$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16219741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked HOTU17c566.32$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.271,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed HOTU22c550$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12114955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Natus Vincere77c541.4$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8726549.1%130 W · 135 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed HOTU18c524.4$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.411936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked Natus Vincere77c514.49$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.055543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Natus Vincere78c474.42$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3759049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere78c400$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed HOTU17c393.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8835848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed HOTU13c390.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.239152.7%48 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x417f…f97bbacked HOTU19c383.08$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.215133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x516a…c312backed HOTU17c372.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…12ebbacked HOTU13c355.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0826836.6%98 W · 170 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Natus Vincere77c350.54$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6222365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed HOTU15c336.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4dd…4f27backed HOTU22c321.97$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8350947%239 W · 270 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Natus Vincere78c318.55$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0821351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Natus Vincere78c318.55$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0811546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Natus Vincere78c318.55$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0812352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Natus Vincere78c318.55$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.082347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0368…e741backed HOTU5c317.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked HOTU14c314.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.218515.3%13 W · 72 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid+15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c04…a593backed HOTU6c314.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8718426.1%48 W · 136 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked HOTU10c302.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2735449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed HOTU7c299.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5425634.4%88 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed HOTU16c295.06$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.142,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked HOTU16c293.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4810250%51 W · 51 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HOTU14c272.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.15,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed HOTU17c265.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2625042.8%107 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed HOTU13c260.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.681,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Natus Vincere77c256.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.924450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Natus Vincere78c253.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.675459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Natus Vincere78c253.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.676168.9%42 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xae06…be4dbacked Natus Vincere80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5014560.7%88 W · 57 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked HOTU17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.581244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed HOTU20c242$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5915134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed HOTU12c236.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4235344.8%158 W · 195 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c7e…8301backed HOTU14c225.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.121921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f61…67ebbacked HOTU27c213.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.373135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffdc…ce87backed HOTU17c210.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.835139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f79…abbbbacked HOTU6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127018.6%13 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed HOTU11c199.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2260838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed HOTU19c190.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.151,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed HOTU15c189.75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6644939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere76c185$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.73,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed HOTU18c183.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1791743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed HOTU17c182.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.429831.5%94 W · 204 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked HOTU16c174.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.672,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked HOTU11c171.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.075,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12b…b5edbacked HOTU12c154.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed HOTU15c150.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.62,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbf4f…63f3backed HOTU19c148.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2510856.5%61 W · 47 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed HOTU17c135.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.544,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Natus Vincere73c132$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.361837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed HOTU22c128.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.216154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed HOTU17c127.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.462,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Natus Vincere78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8317756.5%100 W · 77 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Natus Vincere78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.835261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Natus Vincere78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8323056.1%129 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Natus Vincere78c126.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.832152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed HOTU19c125.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7919048.9%93 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Natus Vincere80c123$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.623653.4%126 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd969…b08bbacked HOTU11c117.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.278230.5%25 W · 57 L-10.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.