MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb47cef49d86057cc52fa186b8808619454857781ae204abe589c143a264db432
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 19c | 12,648$2,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.35 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 5,215$3,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.66 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 27c | 4,491$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.24 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 1,773$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.42 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 17c | 1,365$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 917.44$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.78 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 836.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Rangers | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 534.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.06 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 6c | 497.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 380$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 354.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 336$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 77c | 223.99$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 221.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 208.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 188.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Texas Rangers | 18c | 128.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Texas Rangers | 23c | 112.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 23c | 104.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Texas Rangers | 22c | 78.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 71.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 68.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Texas Rangers | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Texas Rangers | 30c | 50.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 49.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Texas Rangers | 33c | 35.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 15.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.