MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae5189786ddabb0e49fb8af893e258cf86e984599bc6729f7ab0171127b7eecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed No | 54c | 22,892$12,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,480.26 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 46c | 11,296$5,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,151.99 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 46c | 9,667$4,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.7 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 54c | 5,300$2,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 45c | 4,400$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.99 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed No | 55c | 2,041$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.45 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 46c | 936$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 804.55$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.05 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed No | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 6c | 319.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed No | 54c | 222.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 5c | 208.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…5c65backed No | 54c | 107.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…1a0dbacked No | 54c | 41.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…b4a5backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 206 | 57.8%119 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…9526backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf017…9f12backed No | 54c | 18.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.