MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f3c7db3bbc78c882d94b711f80e6c9f88dc766a0d37afda308bd79abe8df971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 11,993$5,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,477.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 10,079$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,410.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 1,463$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.19 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 23c | 1,243$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 1,205$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 75c | 599.99$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 77c | 472.36$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 22c | 445.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 24c | 426.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under | 47c | 319.26$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 288$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Over | 21c | 232.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Over | 15c | 141.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Over | 16c | 76.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 54c | 43.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…37d6backed Over | 72c | 40.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 54c | 39.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 54c | 24.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 58c | 23.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 47c | 23.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.