NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4cf2f0c6ce524930d249fa0698bed150e478a4d52b6cd3278e65107925644e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 68c | 1,099$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.89 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 35c | 595$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 32c | 419.89$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…aefcbacked Over | 34c | 411.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 66c | 329.38$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 316.35$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c50…2de6backed Under | 67c | 311$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 37c | 217.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Under | 68c | 196$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 33c | 181$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Under | 68c | 139$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 66c | 130.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 33c | 113.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 91.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 35c | 85.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 32c | 80.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 77.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 75.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 66c | 72.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 33c | 54.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 33c | 51.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 32c | 47.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 26c | 45.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 35c | 45.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 66c | 42.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Under | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Under | 67c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Under | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5this page
- Ducks vs. SharksSharks won
- Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Ducks vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Sharks won
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.