Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb506b19e71cd07a94fc88426c2f3d58e123b0ba9d9e28fd3a1bac14a5eab500c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 3,512$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.03 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…67f2backed No | 53c | 510.56$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 55c | 448.14$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 398.41$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 348.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 326.31$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 323.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 238.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.85 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 52c | 173.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 161.96$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 41c | 124.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 32c | 112.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 108.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 45c | 102.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 45c | 99.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 51c | 97.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 97.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 91.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 90.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 55c | 82.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 55c | 82.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 80.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 68.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 19c | 66.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 64.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 55.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 52.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 47.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 47c | 46.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 43.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…dfe9backed No | 49c | 40.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 39.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407a…52b0backed No | 52c | 33.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 46c | 30.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked Yes | 53c | 30.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…1995backed Yes | 45c | 28.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed Yes | 45c | 27.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 47c | 25.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 53c | 24.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 63c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed Yes | 49c | 22.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 55c | 20.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 69c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 63c | 19.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed Yes | 63c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 102°F or higher on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 83°F or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.