NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5324a3ed867ed434810725e5c49c04552619655b06cdcfad3a9f9d065916a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ee…ca3cbacked Under | 54c | 18,434$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.97 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 4,052$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.51 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 3,922$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.95 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 46c | 2,109$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.11 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 54c | 2,006$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.24 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,579$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 46c | 1,189$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.11 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,053$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.71 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Under | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 695$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…3f97backed Over | 47c | 574.3$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 54c | 547$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.38 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 51c | 529.31$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.69 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 501$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.54 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 402$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc1…5da4backed Over | 46c | 397.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 385.31$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 46c | 324.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 55c | 282$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 281$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 260$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 181.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 47c | 76.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…8fbabacked Under | 56c | 73.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 65.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 65.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…18dfbacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 53.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…6759backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -16.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 47.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Under | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…6e99backed Over | 51c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5this page
- Knicks vs. Trail BlazersKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.