Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb53dda0579c78e246c12bb997bae1be53950876621c62abaec078dedc9f9cd69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 2,554$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed No | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 37c | 868.92$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.85 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed No | 37c | 675.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 66c | 658.21$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 37c | 499.96$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.98 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 439.42$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 73c | 365$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 34c | 333.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 61c | 325.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 58c | 296.27$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 267.14$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed No | 50c | 230$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2452…4571backed Yes | 62c | 225.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 38c | 217$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 63c | 194$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 71c | 182.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 62c | 161.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 40c | 144.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…339abacked Yes | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 80c | 124.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…d5e9backed Yes | 57c | 100.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 46c | 92.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 91.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 33c | 89.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Yes | 64c | 83.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 64c | 79.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed No | 66c | 74.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 50c | 73.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 36c | 62.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 78c | 60.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…bed9backed No | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 39c | 51.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 57c | 47.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Yes | 36c | 46.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…cd06backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…9a6fbacked Yes | 63c | 34.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfe…f954backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1036…fb48backed No | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…c2f5backed No | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Yes | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4590backed Yes | 64c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…c9bebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.