Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4668d24d1d41ee789a9584b8a2c85536ec715349622d4b411bd8073b6dd9b371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 11c | 4,191$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 3,779$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.94 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 2,935$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 14c | 1,853$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 1,262$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Over | 68c | 1,208$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 12c | 833.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 69c | 814.95$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.49 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…9661backed Over | 68c | 715.79$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 637.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 73c | 631.91$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.91 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 73c | 423.88$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 64c | 312.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Over | 76c | 262.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 73c | 205.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 62c | 180.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 77c | 179.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 74c | 165.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 63c | 159.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…ef3abacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Under | 30c | 118.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 61c | 96.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…07bbbacked Over | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 12c | 88.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 20c | 77.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 79c | 74.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Over | 63c | 73.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878e…b719backed Under | 20c | 72.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Under | 40c | 53.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 62c | 47.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2548…b742backed Over | 75c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…37fabacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…1bf7backed Over | 63c | 26.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 80c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 72c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.