Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c3f7014b23a4504a31c1844f2b9db5149908a13eaa1a307bcc80ffc6d36be1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 80c | 17,000$13,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 5,768$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 5,252$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 3c | 2,775$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 1,119$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 30c | 1,059$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.7 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 72c | 1,017$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.78 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 593.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 28c | 458.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.9 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 14c | 314.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…6b13backed Over | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Over | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…a8a9backed Over | 6c | 266.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 72c | 224.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over | 19c | 161$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42da…304cbacked Under | 72c | 139.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 72c | 138.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Under | 73c | 104.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…9156backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…a04bbacked Under | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…443fbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.