Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb547858c180a6a3e4e622b9a9e0c6b3ab57c45a35312efce034c481c2c91c55e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 1,032$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 8c | 637.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 36c | 474.02$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.19 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 457.77$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 59c | 430.44$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 343$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 54c | 338.74$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 52c | 300.42$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 29c | 281.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 42c | 228.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 45c | 211.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 206.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 179.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 166.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 160.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 155$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 71c | 153.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 60c | 147.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 38c | 145.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 138.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 133.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 51c | 126.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 126.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 123.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 40c | 120.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 60c | 117.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 42c | 116.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 49c | 102.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 100.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 96.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 44c | 89.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 83.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 41c | 80.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 72c | 77.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 75.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 73c | 72.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 69.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 68.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Yes | 39c | 66.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 55c | 65.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…d9e3backed No | 46c | 65.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 64.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 61c | 62.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 64c | 60.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 61c | 60.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 66c | 60.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 59.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 26c | 59.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 46c | 57.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 57.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 56.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 56.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d2…bc8ebacked Yes | 54c | 53.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 29c | 52.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 51.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 50.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 52c | 50.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 52c | 49.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 38c | 48.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 54c | 48.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…9cd8backed Yes | 55c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 55c | 47.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ac…7cfebacked Yes | 55c | 47.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 40c | 46.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 46.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 50c | 45.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 45.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 62c | 45.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 59c | 45.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 61c | 44.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 44c | 44.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 33c | 43.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 41.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 45c | 41.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 50c | 40.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 39.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 37.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 76c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 48c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 33.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.