Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08e18357667f109ec9f0315b78a2a13ef55886128cdf0e32e8c324b8e657f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 1,592$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 838.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 516.85$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 391.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 373.62$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 311$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 293.63$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 37c | 292.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 251.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 227.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 44c | 224.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 220.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 43c | 218.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 191.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 180.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 175.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 174$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed No | 65c | 156$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 47c | 156$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 147.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 139.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 138.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 51c | 129.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed No | 67c | 127.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 123.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 122.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 121.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3132…30d1backed Yes | 37c | 119.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 43c | 118.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 43c | 116.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 116.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 116.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 105.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 37c | 105.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 67c | 102.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 95.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed No | 65c | 94.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 91.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 82.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…1145backed Yes | 35c | 78.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 77.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 76.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 76.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 76.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 75.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 70.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 31c | 70.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 65.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 65.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 36c | 62.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 38c | 61.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 61.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 61.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 58.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 58.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 33c | 57.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 58c | 57.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 57.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 55.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 33c | 53.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 32c | 52.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 52.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 51.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 29c | 51.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 38c | 49.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 48.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 48.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 45.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 47c | 45.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 38c | 44.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 44.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 42.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 61c | 42.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 41.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 40c | 40.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 75c | 40.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 38.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.