Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Armenia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb565647e0e9563ff18088e4e1ccc550ca6de659b014c80c9cd47a21b36e1fc28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moldovaof Armenia, Moldova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Armenia | 2c | 7,766$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Armenia | 12c | 2,220$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.16 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Armenia | 2c | 2,067$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Moldova | 72c | 315$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Armenia | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Moldova | 68c | 203.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595f…3fcabacked Armenia | 33c | 177.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Armenia | 31c | 158.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…de1ebacked Moldova | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 121 | 43%52 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Moldova | 69c | 93.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Armenia | 20c | 86.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Moldova | 68c | 72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Moldova | 68c | 65.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Moldova | 67c | 57.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Moldova | 68c | 47.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Armenia | 32c | 41.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Moldova | 68c | 38.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde78…1cf6backed Moldova | 80c | 38.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Armenia (-1.5)this page
- Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Armenia (-2.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Moldova (-1.5)Armenia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.