Fifa International · resolved market
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a168beb424669c846ba14188b39740e82e4b27f5e8cc10ef5a7503f6ec45a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 7,710$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.28 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 7c | 3,190$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.31 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…e455backed Under | 3c | 1,852$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 14c | 1,417$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.59 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 7c | 1,301$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,231$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.11 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b9cebacked Over | 36c | 900$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 30.4%41 W · 94 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a41…b2acbacked Under | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 31c | 618.84$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 350 | 36.3%127 W · 223 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Over | 27c | 600$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…a37fbacked Under | 73c | 346.96$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.28 | 208 | 39.4%82 W · 126 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Over | 59c | 328.95$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 39c | 320.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 306 | 42.8%131 W · 175 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 298.41$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.43 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 39c | 266.58$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.15 | 372 | 42.5%158 W · 214 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 78c | 253.55$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Under | 33c | 243.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…0404backed Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b99…8f62backed Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6214…415abacked Under | 49c | 151.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 45c | 110.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…c691backed Over | 58c | 100.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 87 | 73.6%64 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…509fbacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 59c | 67.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 335 | 44.5%149 W · 186 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,144 | 39.2%448 W · 696 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…a929backed Under | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 35c | 48.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…6dd4backed Under | 54c | 42.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 117 | 75.2%88 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Over | 78c | 32.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…d972backed Over | 78c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5this page
- Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Armenia (-1.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Armenia (-2.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Moldova (-1.5)Armenia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.