Fifa International · resolved market
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe917b7457388ea80e7fc7249f9ec16af3c30812a232e2cf05bd9c9a7f82af6a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9124…f819backed Over | 31c | 6,043$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.29 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 18c | 4,057$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.17 | 228 | 13.2%30 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 8c | 2,420$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 1,518$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.4 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 31c | 1,298$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Over | 21c | 655$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 72c | 622.36$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.94 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 70c | 607.36$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.21 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 514.43$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 30c | 466.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 229 | 19.2%44 W · 185 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 68c | 386$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 70c | 362$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 70c | 361.98$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 69c | 334.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 75c | 224.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 71c | 199.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 72c | 150.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 72c | 128.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 122.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 75c | 108.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 183 | 71%130 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 100.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 74c | 100.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 88.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 200 | 53%106 W · 94 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed Under | 70c | 40.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Under | 71c | 38.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2520…4cf1backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686b…ea8fbacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 70c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…d1d3backed Under | 72c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5this page
- Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 4.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Armenia (-1.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Armenia (-2.5)Moldova won
- Spread: Moldova (-1.5)Armenia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.