Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5cedbebe76418f9b621d3fafdf7ff4bcc0144f7f6d65acd25f4142c974c9629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 4,660$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.11 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 35c | 2,902$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.74 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Over | 65c | 2,309$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 821.54$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.54 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 35c | 651.82$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 36c | 619.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 65c | 526.15$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 459.12$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 35c | 416.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 64c | 377.83$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.02 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…5687backed Over | 64c | 341.61$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Over | 65c | 314.26$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 35c | 291.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 267.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 64c | 232.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 64c | 202.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…13cabacked Over | 65c | 193.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 64c | 155.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…664cbacked Over | 64c | 155.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…d438backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…1b9cbacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 64c | 111$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 19c | 63.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 65c | 60.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over | 67c | 58.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 36c | 46.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Over | 65c | 37.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Under | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5Over won
- SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.