Us Politics · resolved market
US military action on Yemen before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ea89b41ef952c2a26353d772eb29d3b9913023657890e0da92ea351d8308c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 1c | 19,255$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.46 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…5d23backed No | 0c | 12,671$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 76c | 10,467$7,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.33 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 7c | 3,457$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,232.48 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 36c | 2,493$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 9c | 1,991$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.95 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 7c | 1,662$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,574$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.73 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 5c | 1,316$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.79 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 5c | 1,266$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.27 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,233$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.28 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.11 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked No | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 9c | 955.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +340.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 7c | 800.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 3c | 786.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 17c | 765.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 759.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.93 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 4c | 711.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.62 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…ea89backed Yes | 5c | 694$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +821.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…9ff2backed Yes | 12c | 687.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 660.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.34 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 10c | 634.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.12 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 66c | 543.54$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 485.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.01 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 8c | 480$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 13c | 472.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.85 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked No | 22c | 452.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b1c8backed Yes | 20c | 425$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 13c | 382.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 355.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.22 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 10c | 314.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 4c | 304.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 10c | 261.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +141.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…70e3backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 7c | 248.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 20cpaid | +456.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…2babbacked No | 19c | 240$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 10c | 206.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.88 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 46c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 191.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 171.1$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 9c | 168.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7588…9e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +378.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed No | 74c | 141$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 18c | 132.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked Yes | 75c | 131.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…494dbacked No | 17c | 120.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 74c | 90.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed Yes | 78c | 72.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b2…b463backed No | 24c | 70.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 60.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…27d5backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2438…49e6backed Yes | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.